Fantasy baseball 2023 mock draft: CBS traditional roto 55 breakdown ·

26 Jun 2024, 00:00

I don’t league shame. And honestly, I hate when people do. It’s a gatekeeping approach, and fantasy sports should be an inclusive arena in all areas. That includes those who play in low-stakes leagues, free leagues, or smaller leagues.

One trap I’ve found myself getting into over the years, though, is playing primarily in 15-team, 20-team, and 30-team leagues. It makes me look at those as the default when I’m doing my analysis, but I realize the vast majority of fantasy managers are playing in 10- and 12-team leagues. And that is phenomenal, as they bring their own challenges and are actually more difficult in many ways.

I wanted to not only sharpen my skills in the 12-team arena, but I wanted to try out a new approach. I joined the CBS Sports crew for a mock draft hosted on their site to look through the ADP and spot key differences from NFBC and Fantrax, but also to try an approach to see if I could confirm my own biases.

I wanted to wait on SP as long as possible and I wanted to collect backend OFs to push back on the notion that the position isn’t deep.

Spoiler alert: I hated this draft and this approach.

The Field

Before we get into the results and the thought process, let’s look at who all joined us in the draft room.

1. B_Don — Razzball
2. Frank Stampfl — CBS Sports
3. Tim Kanak — Fantasy Aceball
4. Mike Gianella — Baseball Prospectus
5. Michael Waterloo — The Athletic/Anna Kendrick Fan Club
6. Tim McLeod — Prospect 361
7. Chris Towers — CBS Sports
8. Jake Wiener — Prospects 1500
9. JR Fenton — TGFBI
10. Raymond Atherton — Fantasy Aceball
11. Jake Holland — The Toss Up Podcast
12. Scott White — CBS Sports

Pre-Draft Approach

When I saw the draft order, I knew that I would end up with one of the clear Top 5 players in fantasy this year in Ronald Acuña Jr., Trea Turner, Julio Rodríguez, José Ramírez, or Aaron Judge. I really wanted to push the envelope on outfield, so I was hoping that I would be able to grab either Turner or Ramírez to start the draft.

The idea I had was that toward the end of 15-teamers, I really, really like the available outfield options. I tend to live in that range for my OF4 and OF5, and sometimes my OF3. But would moving from a 15-team league to a 12-team league change my thoughts and the overall value of those players compared to available players on the board at other positions when they came off? That’s what I was in search of.

The other approach I wanted to take was to fade starting pitching as much as possible. There are so many arms who I like this year who have not only a similar upside but a similar floor, that I wanted to really load up offensively and then put together a rotation that I felt OK with to finish in the middle of the pack in a Roto league.

Draft Breakdown

For each round, I’ll go through my pick, with my thoughts, as well as offer up analysis on my favorite pick and least favorite pick of each round.

Throughout, I’ll be coming back to some interesting thoughts on where players went, approaches teams took, and how my strategy bombed worse than Black Adam did at the box office.

Round 1

My pick: José Ramírez

Picking fifth, I assumed that the four fellas picking ahead of me would do my job for me, and they did. They gave me the leftover of the first elite tier, and I can’t say that I’m mad at filling 3B early given the lack of quality players at the position

Favorite pick: Ronald Acuña

It’s hard to pick a favorite pick in Round 1 since the field is so stacked. Given the value, I’ll give it to Frank with Acuña since he’s my No. 1 player in the format.

Least favorite pick: Rafael Devers

This draft took place during a livestream on the CBS Sports Fantasy Baseball Today channel on YouTube, and during it, Scott mentioned how he wanted to prioritize third base. While I get it, for sure, it felt a little early for Devers and that he left a lot of value on the board at other positions.

Thought from the expert: “I don’t regret going Acuña over Ramírez here, because you’re likely to have at least one weakness in your lineup regardless. Outfield is similarly shallow, and we need to start five of them in Roto. I think Acuña and Ramírez offer similar skill-sets, but Acuña’s upside is higher and he’s in a better lineup.” — Frank Stampfl

Round 2

My pick: Bo Bichette

Yeah, you can call me a homer if you want, but I prefer to call it maximizing value. Bichette is a fringe first-rounder for me (I’d take him over Devers, for instance), so getting him 20th overall felt like a steal. Speaking of steals, the Blue Jays want to run and run often, as we saw Bichette attempt two steals in his spring game last Tuesday. I have a great offensive foundation through two rounds.

Favorite pick: Bobby Witt Jr.

With Tim picking ahead of me in even rounds, I knew I was going to run into issues with him taking the young, exciting players. This is a fantastic spot for Witt, and it’s one of the first glaring differences I realized with the CBS draft compared to other sites is how low he’s going.

Least favorite pick: Corbin Burnes

The pick is fine, sure, but given my thoughts on starting pitcher this year, I just don’t want to be the first person to pop the starting pitcher bubble. As you’ll see, this became a trend throughout the draft.

Thought from the expert: “I was surprised as I thought Witt would go somewhere between 9 and 12. I’m very happy to have a 3B-eligible bat who will steal 30 bases and it fits well with my first pick, Kyle Tucker. My team is 50-50 HR and SB after two picks and one of the worst positions to fill (3B) is no longer a concern.” — Tim McLeod

Round 3

My pick: Francisco Lindor

“But wait, you already have a shortstop!” Yeah, and we already had Season 1 of Bumper in Berlin. You expect us not to want another one? When I decided to push the envelope on OF and SP, I wanted to go best player available to me. For me, here, that’s Lindor, but Ozzie Albies was in consideration.

Favorite pick: José Altuve

I really hoped that Altuve would fall to me, as he’s been my favorite Round 3 value in drafts given the lack of positional depth at second base, too. This was a perfect pick for Frank.

Least favorite pick: Kyle Schwarber

I’m a big Schwarber fan, and I get wanting the power, but with Raymond already having Yordan Alvarez and Austin Riley on his squad, it felt like he was neglecting other areas that his team needed to triple down on power.

Thought from the expert: “My strategy with my first four picks is to try and get as much power as possible. With the rule changes, I think steals will be up across the league, as well as the easiest statistic to chase on the waiver wire. Speed specialists are pretty common, power guys aren’t (and the ones you can find are almost always a drain in BA or other counting stats). I haven’t drafted Schwarber in any leagues yet so this was definitely intentional. Normally I am looking at Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado, or Paul Goldschmidt there.” — Raymond Atherton

Round 4

My pick: Josh Hader

Chris Towers took Edwin Díaz as the first closer off the board, and I wanted to get an elite one this year, so I decided to take Hader over Emmanuel Clase because I trust the team just a tad bit more.

Favorite pick: Daulton Varsho

I really debated taking Varsho in this round (it’s a two-catcher league), but I had to make the call between an elite closer or Varsho, and I went the closer route. I love this pick by Frank.

Least favorite pick: Jacob deGrom

We already saw pitchers getting pushed down in the draft, and there were a ton of great ones here to take. I just don’t get why you’d take the inherent injury risk that comes with deGrom unless the thinking was to go after the most elite arm available and feeling comfy with filling in for him from the waiver wire.

Round 5

My pick: George Springer

This is where I’d typically take my first pitcher in drafts, but seeing how the draft room was pushing up hitters and pushing pitchers down, I needed to pivot a bit to get my first outfielder since it’s a five-outfielder league. I love Springer leading off for the Jays, but there’s definitely injury risk with him.

Favorite pick: Brandon Woodruff

Silly value on Woodruff, who is a Top 5 pitcher for me this year. CBS projections and ADP have him lower, which presents a great value for those drafting on the platform.

Least favorite pick: Eloy Jiménez

There’s not really a pick I dislike here, but given his inability to stay on the field, I have to put Jiménez here by default. Hopefully a full-time shift to DH helps Jiménez this year, but it still felt a tad early for Eloy.

Round 6

My pick: Devin Williams

Blah. It’s fine to lock down two closers, but I probably should have gone in another direction here. My hope was that Andrés Giménez or Vinnie Pasquantino would fall to me in Round 7, but they didn’t. I should have reached for one of them. Like Jake Paul against Tommy Fury, I’m taking the L here.

Favorite pick: Teoscar Hernández

Fantastic pick here by Scott. Teoscar continues to be a tad underrated for fantasy, even after his move to Seattle, and getting him in this spot given the position is a great win for Scott.

Least favorite pick: Starling Marte

The value is fine, it’s more of being less confident in a speed-first player who is getting into his mid-30s. I like to be out on the player first before they force me to be out.

Round 7

My pick: Alejandro Kirk

I wish I could take back that Williams pick. It’s like my version of Jay-Z’s Kingdom Come. Let’s just pretend it didn’t happen. I wanted to address catcher since it is a two-catcher league, so I opted for Kirk over Salvador Pérez given the difference in age.

Favorite pick: Andrés Giménez

Second base is pretty thin this year, too, so you’re likely to hate your option there. B-Don got a great value in Round 7 for someone who can give you a boost in average and speed.

Least favorite pick: Framber Valdez

It’s not that I dislike Valdez, it’s just that I worry about his ability to repeat as a ground-ball pitcher given the lack of shifting this year. Also, with the other arms still on the board, I would have opted to go in another direction.

Round 8

My pick: Robbie Ray

Remember when Michael Scott showed how brave he was and what an “ally” he was when he kissed Oscar in The Office? He said “I did it” in a voice that barely got out. That’s how I felt when I picked Ray here as my SP1. Ideal? No, as Zac Gallen and Cristian Javier — my two main targets — went earlier in the round. But can I make it work? I think so… at least, I did at the time.

Favorite pick: Félix Bautista

Bautista is the last of a tier for me at closer, so Stampfl being able to scoop him up here in Round 8 and secure 30ish saves was huge.

Least favorite pick: Kris Bryant

Maybe? I mean, I didn’t really dislike a pick in this round. Bryant could have a massive year in Colorado, but should we look into the idea that they may actually rest some of their bigger names more often at home than on the road?

Thought from the expert: “I loved getting Bautista where I did. He’s the reliever I wind up drafting the most because he is the end of a tier and one of the nine or 10 relievers who I feel safe about their job security. He’s been dealing with knee and shoulder issues this spring, but has thrown a bullpen at 80-85% thus far and appears to be on track for opening day. If people keep letting him slip in drafts, I’m just going to keep taking him. As for expectations, he doesn’t have a long track record but he does have filthy stuff. I’m expecting a sub-3 ERA, well over a strikeout per inning, and 25-30 saves.” — Frank Stampfl

Round 9

My pick: Gleyber Torres

I might be higher than the consensus on Torres, but this felt like a great landing spot for him. He’s not going to give us the 2019 numbers — we know that by now. But .260 with 22 home runs and 12 steals is definitely achievable.

Favorite pick: Lance Lynn

The 2022 season overall was dreadful for Lynn, but he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season. Fantastic value here for Raymond.

Least favorite pick: Taylor Ward

I’m out on Ward, and it feels like we just pick and choose which late breakout guys we believe in and which we don’t. I tend to fade them all, and it works out more often than not.

Round 10

My pick: Nick Castellanos

If you can’t tell, I like to target players who we were high on last year and had a down year.

Favorite pick: George Kirby

Want to know who is going to be an ace this year but isn’t being drafted like one? If you’ve read anything in your entire life, you know it’s the guy whose name is listed here. It’s Kirby. George Kirby. He’s on the Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola path.

Least favorite pick: Lars Nootbaar

I love Nootbaar. You love Nootbaar. I’m sure his family loves him, too, but Tim Kanak may love him more than anyone, as the sleeper appeal is off him at this price. It leaves little room for him to return value if you pick him this early.

Round 11

My pick: Logan Webb

Like Castellanos, I wanted to target another player who I felt dropped too low after his 2022 season wasn’t at the level that we hoped for. I have more concern over the ground balls than I do the Ks at this point with Webb, but I’m OK with him as my SP2.

Favorite pick: Jorge Polanco

I love the Polanco pick, as he fits my psychology of a bounce-back player after a down 2022. I think we see him land somewhere in the middle of 2021 and 2022, which is still a really, really useful fantasy player.

Least favorite pick: Logan Gilbert

I’m avoiding Gilbert pretty much in all drafts, as the underlying numbers give me some concern that Gilbert can be an SP3 this year.

Thought from the expert: “I’m all-in on a Polanco bounce back. His underlying numbers suggest that his struggles last year were mostly (though not all) bad luck, and while I don’t necessarily expect 33 homers again, he should be a solid five-category contributor if he’s healthy. He’s become one of my favorite second base targets outside of the Top 100, and a big reason why I’m not actually too concerned about positional scarcity at that spot (Brandon Lowe being the other reason). Somewhere between 2021 and 2022 sounds about right.” — Chris Towers

Thought from the expert: “Logan Gilbert is a horse and, as a #3/4 starter, exactly what I’m looking for. I’m projecting a mid-3 ERA, strikeout per inning, and close to 200 innings. I’ll take those numbers every day in the 11th Round.” — Tim McLeod

Round 12

My pick: Chris Bassitt

He’s one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball year in and year out. He was down 4 MPH on his sinker in his first spring training start, but I’m not hitting the panic button yet.

Favorite pick: Rowdy Tellez

He’s already putting on a power display in spring training, and I expect that to carry over to the regular season, too, in a good lineup and park.

Least favorite pick: Dustin May

The talent is incredible, and no pick had the draft room as jealous as this one, as everyone seemingly wanted him on their team. I just have concerns over his usage, and given that it’s a weekly league, I think it’s going to be frustrating over the course of the season when you have to plug him in and out of your lineup.

Round 13

My pick: Josh Bell

After my Bassitt pick, I had a tier of first basemen that I was hoping to dip into. C.J. Cron and Tellez went right after my Round 12 pick, but I was able to get Josh Bell here in Round 13. He’s fine. He has a good floor, and while I’ve been skeptical of the batted-ball results in the past, I like his move to Cleveland.

Favorite pick: Jesús Luzardo

There’s untapped potential still with Luzardo in Miami, and we saw some of that last year. He could take a huge leap, and given the foundation that Towers had at starting pitcher, it allowed him to take more of an upside play here.

Least favorite pick: Seiya Suzuki

I’m on — or was on — the Suzuki bandwagon this year, but that oblique injury is scary. It could work out, but I just tend to fade already-injured players.

Thought from the expert: “Yeah, I pretty much executed my pitching plan perfectly in this draft. I want two aces to anchor my staff, giving me the baseline of volume and ratio stats that gives me the freedom to take more risks later on. Justin Verlander and Shane McClanahan aren’t exactly the surest things among the ace tier, but if I get 170 innings out of both of them, I’m very confident I’m going to get close to 400 combined strikeouts and excellent ERA and WHIP. That’s what I want in pretty much all of my leagues, because it allows me to take a shot on someone like Luzardo, who is not a safe bet for innings, but has huge per-inning upside and the potential for excellent ratios. That kind of build has worked out well for me over the past few years.” — Chris Towers

Round 14

My pick: Hunter Brown

Let’s have some fun, right? Brown’s ADP has shot up ever since the latest Lance McCullers injury. It felt like I reached slightly for him, but the draft room was equally sad to see him go. To channel my inner Alison Wonderland — I just want to make a grown man cry.

Favorite pick: Masataka Yoshida

This is who I really wanted in this round, but he went earlier than I expected given the ADP. This is more in line with where he should be going, but based on the draft room, he’s the No. 49 outfielder. Fantastic pick by JR Fenton.

Least favorite pick: Jhoan Duran

Duran’s stuff is absolutely filthy, but the Twins seem to have him fully entrenched in the set-up role. Is this a ratios play?

Thought from the expert: “I think he (Duran) has the best arm in that pen, and he’ll get the bulk of the save opps. I drafted Liam Hendriks so as to stash him hoping for a return, so I have created an open slot and once the closer carousel starts to spin, I’ll find my saves, especially in a 12-team format.” — Tim McLeod

Round 15

My pick: Oscar González

Bleh. It’s not a pretty pick, and Scott White crapped on it during the draft. I just played TLC’s Unpretty over and over to make me feel better about it. Desperate times, n’at.

Favorite pick: Kodai Senga

Great spot for him here. He should step right in and immediately provide SP3 value.

Least favorite pick: Thairo Estrada

I just struggle to see the “it” factor with Estrada. He’s one of the easier fades for me, as absolutely nothing pops off the board. I’d take him in points leagues for the opportunity, but that’s about it.

Round 16

My pick: Ke’Bryan Hayes

It has to happen eventually, right? I know I’m at least getting good stolen bases here from Hayes, but if he uses the offseason bulk and translates his hard-hit balls to doubles and homers, he’s in for a breakout.

He is. Here’s the triple from Hayes earlier. https://t.co/4WzKmDZ0fh pic.twitter.com/RpBgmWEkL0

— Michael Waterloo (@MichaelWaterloo) March 4, 2023

Favorite pick: Ketel Marte

Marte falling to Round 16 may just be the steal of the draft.

Least favorite pick: N/A

We are all perfect individuals and made great picks in Round 16 (Daniel Hudson, I guess).

Thought from the expert: “So, I took Marte at 181. What’s crazy is his ADP on some prominent sites is outside the top 200, and I can’t make heads or tails of it. I get that he disappointed everyone last year, and so maybe the presumption is that he’s a casualty of the juiced ball being gone. But unlike some of the hitters who so clearly are, Marte’s quality of contact is still incredible. He seems like a safe bet to bounce back in batting average, at least, and has an outside chance for stud numbers at a position where few do.” — Scott White

Round 17

My pick: Scott Barlow

I just didn’t see anyone else I really liked here. Jesse Winker was a target, sure, but he went with the first pick in the round. I’ll take a third closer.

Favorite pick: Jesse Winker

Winker seems to be healthy and has a fresh start in a good ballpark. I’ll buy the dip, and B-Don is, too.

Least favorite pick: Jon Berti

I talked to Raymond about this, but this is where I think going in a different direction than Schwarber in Round 3 could have helped. Because now, we are at the grab steals by any means necessary part of the draft. At least, that’s what a little Berti told me.

Thought from the expert: “Jon Berti was definitely a pick to make up for stolen bases. With no benches, there was no spot to stash some of those speed guys this team build desperately needs. Other than devaluing steals in general, my strategy is to find fast guys on bad teams. He was on a 60-steal pace over 150 games last year and we’ve seen him run in spring training already. Most of stolen bases is intent, and I think he’s proven that already. And I love his ADP.” — Raymond Atherton

Round 18

My pick: Austin Meadows

This is the part of the draft that I tend to live with my outfielders. I really wanted Oscar Colas, but Scott took him with the first pick this round. It was Murphy’s Law last year for Austin Meadows (not to be confused with Murphy’s Law, the standout debut album from St. Lunatic Murphy Lee), and I’m pretty much all-in on a bounce-back year from him.

Favorite pick: Josh Jung

Frank got a third baseman! It seems like a reason enough to celebrate. I’m proud of you, Frankie.

Least favorite pick: Craig Kimbrel

There’s far too many unknowns in that Philadelphia bullpen. I’d have preferred Carlos Estévez.

Round 19

My pick: Keibert Ruiz

We liked him last year, and I needed a second catcher. Can he hit the ball? No clue, but I didn’t want an even worse C2. Plus, it was the main event of AEW Dynamite when this pick was made, so my attention was distracted. I’m only human. I’m a man, I make mistakes.

Favorite pick: Edward Cabrera

E-Cab is one of my favorite breakouts this year. There will be inning concerns, sure, but at this point, taking in those concerns is worth the Round-19 cost.

Least favorite pick: Francisco Álvarez

I think that he is going to be really, really good, but I also think that will be in 2024 and beyond.

Round 20

My pick: Alex Cobb

Did I put $10 on a +15000 ticket for Cobb to win the NL Cy Young? None of your business.

Favorite pick: Tyler Mahle

Mahle’s shoulder is a concern, yes, but the velocity was up in his spring training start. The arrow is pointing up.

Least favorite pick: N/A

Just a reminder to subscribe to The Athletic. What can I say? I’m not above a plug.

Round 21

My pick: Lourdes Gurriel

I wanted a boost in average, and the power should return to an extent — even in Arizona.

Favorite pick: Wil Myers

The lower-back injury isn’t great, but the landing spot is.

Least favorite pick: Eric Haase

I’m glad I drafted Keibert Ruiz.

Round 22

My pick: Spencer Torkelson

I just needed to fill my utility spot here, so I wanted to go with an upside pick. The 2022 season was really bad for Tork, but it was for all Detroit players. I’m betting on the prospect pedigree here.

Favorite pick: Garrett Mitchell

He has the CF job locked down and should, at the very least, steal a ton of bags.

Least favorite pick: Adalberto Mondesí

No comment.

Round 23

My pick: Andrew Painter

I mean, why not? Painter looked absolutely filthy in his debut, sitting 98 and hitting 99. He could break camp with the Phillies. If he doesn’t, he’s an easy drop.

Favorite pick: Kenta Maeda

He’s recovered from Tommy John and has no limitations. Great floor pick by Chris.

Least favorite pick: Joey Bart

I’m really glad I drafted Keibert Ruiz.

My Team

Overall thoughts

So I left the draft room telling myself that I’m not doing that again. Not a mock draft, because then I wouldn’t have a job. But I wouldn’t push outfield and starters the way that I did. When you have to start five outfielders, having Springer, Castellanos, González, Meadows, and Gurriel is fine in a 15-team league. Having that in a 12-team league really put me behind everyone else. I love my infield, but I should have pivoted off the second closer to address an outfielder instead.

As for my rotation, I’m OK with it, but would have preferred to have more of a true No. 1 than Ray. Ray, Webb, and Bassitt are formidable, but having them as SP2-4 looks a hell of a lot better than SP1-3.

I’d say I’d finish around fifth in this league if we played it out with no roster moves.

Thanks to the fellas at CBS for allowing me to join!

(Top photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

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Fantasy baseball 2023 mock draft: CBS traditional roto 55 breakdown

I dont league shame. And honestly, I hate when people do. Its a gatekeeping approach, and fantasy sports should be an inclusive arena in all areas.That includes those who play in low-stakes leagues, free leagues, or smaller leagues.